There were some major events last week. I’ll recap.
My very safe predictions were mostly right. McCain won Super Tuesday running away as Huckabee and Romney split the conservative vote. Huckabee made a serious play in the south, unwisely playing to his evangelical roots, and Romney made a great speech and bowed out.
Clinton is still ahead on delegates, but Obama technically won Super Tuesday. Clinton is reeling like Clubber Lang at the end of Rocky III and has replaced her campaign manager. Just picture Clinton going, “Hngg! Hngg! Argh!!!” and Obama going, “You ain’t so bad! You ain’t so bad!” It’s getting rough out there, and current momentum goes to Obama. Unless Clinton pulls it around, which she is capable of doing among the Democrats especially, the candidacy is going to Obama. He’s really on a roll.
Some thoughts on the Republican race: Now that Romney is out, the conservatives are really rallying around Huckabee. Most people I know that are voting for Huckabee are voting for two reasons. First, he’s a Christian. I’ll deal with that in a moment. Second, he’s for the fair tax.
I don’t have a specific problem with Huckabee per se, but he has been way more negative over the last couple weeks, especially against the other conservative, Romney. Huckabee has the potential to be the most likable of the candidates, but he’s kinda playing too much to the Christian right; however it is working now, it could work against him in a general election.
And I’m tired of people railing against McCain. Sure he’s more liberal than most Republicans on a few issues, but on others he is very conservative: he’s strongly pro-life (by record) and he’s consistent on the War in Iraq. He’s soft on immigration and taxes, but you could say the same thing about Huckabee’s record and stances, which means that people are choosing between the two men based on one’s religious background and not on real issues.
Is Huckabee too behind to really catch up? I think he could make it interesting. It would be fairly historic to come back and even get close at this point. I’d kinda like to see it (I mean, I rooted for the Giants just because they were the underdog … why not?).
Thoughts on the Democrats: As bad as it is that people are voting for Huckabee just because he’s a Christian, its actually worse among the Democrats. African Americans are voting for Obama en masse and white women are doing the same for Hillary. Is this progressive independence? The party that supposedly champions civil rights is divided sharply along racial and gender lines? Doesn’t surprise me at all, since I’ve believed for a while that Democrats are more racist in their own way than conservatives could ever be, but you would hope in 2008 that we could allow ourselves to vote for someone because we appreciate the issues and not because of surface characteristics. We’re not supposed to let these things matter in hiring an employee (by law), but it can matter in a presidential election? Pretty sad.
The other main issue is that now that McCain is pulling ahead, he’s becoming the target for both Democratic candidates and the liberal media. This could have the effect of generating enough good will between Obama and Clinton that it could be a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket in November. Will Obama forget the underhanded tricks and name calling for the good of the party? I wonder. He seems like he would have more integrity than that, but who knows. As much as I’ve studied history, politicians still amaze me at their willingness to be opportunists.
More primaries this week … any predictions? I’ll go ahead and step out and say that Huckabee continues to make ground quick and Obama sweeps another round of states, causing another bout of crying from Hillary.
Peace.
Huckabee has Chuck Norris! What more can you say?
Seriously, though, I’m getting tired of how liberally Huckabee has been painted by the conservative pundits. Maybe that’s just because I think the FairTax is such a great cause. But the issues they raise about Huckabee regarding taxes (primarily an increase in gasoline taxes, to improve the road infrastructure), immigration (primarily in regards to in-state tuition to illegal immigrant children), and pardons (the worst case that’s been publicized was not his pardon, it was Tucker’s), are all not that serious of infractions when you actually look at the circumstances and the rationale behind them.
With regard to Huckabee’s “evangelical” support, I know that in Georgia, at least, the “evangelical” vote was split evenly among Huckabee, McCain, and Romney. I think the evangelical thing is a little bit of a myth.
The main reason I like Huckabee is the FairTax, but the other reason is that he’s very unique among politicians. His answers to the “common” questions are always interesting and compelling, even if I don’t agree with them. For instance, he does not think we should use waterboarding (which I disagree with), but his response is so compelling it makes me respect him all the more.
McCain is different, though. He has consistently worked with some of the most liberal elements of the Democratic party and sponsored legislation that nearly all conservatives disagree with. I think he’d be an OK president, and I’d vote for him over Obama or Clinton for many reasons. But he will have a very hard time getting elected – if he does, it will be on the strength of his ability to be the commander in chief, and pretty much that is the only factor that would help him win in November.
My overall feeling is that McCain is much more liberal than Bush. Huckabee is about the same as Bush, if not more conservative. So I’m having a hard time understanding why he’s been looked at so negatively.
I also think it would be an incredibly great story if Huckabee were to win the nomination. He has been consistently labeled as having no chance, since his popularity came kind of late in the game, he had very little money, etc. And then he starts winning, and everybody just credits it to “evangelicals,” when exit polling doesn’t always support that (his wins in LA and KS were very much across the board). And then you have this mess in WA that just shows how people want to discount him completely. Just plain annoying.
Here are my predictions, though, for November:
McCain vs Clinton – McCain wins
McCain vs Obama – Obama wins
Huckabee vs Clinton – Huckabee wins
Huckabee vs Obama – toss-up
I really do think that Obama would trounce McCain. Huckabee stands a chance against him.